A US Army soldier was arrested for insider trading after being accused of making prediction-market wagers on the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke made a profit of nearly $410,000 by making bets on Polymarket, and he was indicted on charges of unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction, the Department of Justice announced yesterday.
"As alleged in the indictment, Van Dyke participated in the planning and execution of the US military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, called 'Operation Absolute Resolve,' and Van Dyke used his access to classified information about that operation to personally profit," the DOJ said.
Van Dyke, a 38-year-old North Carolina resident stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville, has been an active-duty soldier since 2008 and a master sergeant with US Army Special Forces since 2023, according to the indictment. He was bound by nondisclosure agreements forbidding him from revealing classified or sensitive military information.
Van Dyke allegedly started making bets about a week before the January 3 capture of Maduro. He was charged in US District Court for the Southern District of New York.
"Van Dyke won his wagers on those contracts," and "profited approximately $409,881," the DOJ said. He later "sent most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account," and "took steps to conceal his identity as the trader in the Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets," the DOJ said.
Trump: It's like "Pete Rose betting on his own team"
The DOJ described the bets as follows:
As alleged, on or about Dec. 26, 2025, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account, funded it, and began trading on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets. In total, Van Dyke made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through the evening of Jan. 26. Those bets all took the “YES” position on “US Forces in Venezuela... by January 31, 2026”; “Maduro out by... January 31, 2026”; “Will the US invade Venezuela by... January 31,”; or “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by... January 31.” Van Dyke bet a total of approximately $33,034 on those outcomes while in possession of classified nonpublic information about Operation Absolute Resolve.
President Trump was asked about Van Dyke at the White House on Thursday, and responded by comparing the wagers to "Pete Rose betting on his own team," according to CNBC. “Pete Rose, they kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team," Trump was quoted as saying. "Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team. I’ll look into it.”
CNBC wrote that when "a reporter noted there have been other allegations of insider trading on prediction markets about the Iran war, Trump said, 'You know the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.'" Trump also said that he is "not happy with any of that stuff."
Polymarket said in a statement yesterday that it "identified a user trading on classified government information," and "referred the matter to the DOJ and cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today's arrest is proof the system works."
Trump Jr. firm invested in Polymarket
Polymarket last year announced an investment from a venture capital firm backed by Donald Trump Jr., and added Trump Jr. to its advisory board. The investment was reportedly at least $10 million. Trump Jr. is also a strategic advisor for Kalshi, another major prediction market.
Some US states have tried to impose stricter regulations on prediction markets, but are facing pushback from the Trump administration. The US won a court ruling finding that the federal government's jurisdiction over prediction markets prevents New Jersey from enforcing laws that prohibit betting on college sports and require licenses to offer other types of sports wagers.
Van Dyke became involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve on or about December 8, 2025, the indictment said. Van Dyke "possessed material nonpublic information about that operation at the time of each and every trade he placed in Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets," and had received that information "under a duty of trust and confidence to maintain the confidentiality of such classified information and to not use it for personal matters or gain," the indictment said.
The indictment said that hours after Maduro's capture, a photo was taken depicting Van Dyke "on what appears to be the deck of a ship at sea, at sunrise wearing US military fatigues, and carrying a rifle, standing alongside three other individuals wearing US military fatigues." The photo was uploaded to Van Dyke's Google account, the indictment said.
Shortly after the Maduro operation, "reports of unusual trading in Maduro-related contracts on Polymarket appeared in the press and on social media," the DOJ said. The agency alleged that Van Dyke reacted to the reports by trying to conceal his trades.
"On or about January 6, 2026, for example, Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated," the DOJ said. "That same day, Van Dyke changed the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account to an email address that was not subscribed to in his name, and which he had created on or about Dec. 14, 2025."
Van Dyke also faces CFTC lawsuit
The DOJ press release said the combined maximum penalty of the charges is 60 years in prison, but noted that the maximums "are prescribed by Congress and provided here for informational purposes only, as any sentencing of the defendant will be determined by the judge."
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) separately filed a civil complaint against Van Dyke, also in the Southern District of New York. The agency said it is seeking "restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations."
Van Dyke "was entrusted with confidential information about US operations and yet took action that endangered US national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way," CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said.
The case is "the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts, and the first time the CFTC has used the so-called ‘Eddie Murphy Rule’ to bring charges based on the misuse of government information," the agency said. The Eddie Murphy rule is named after the actor because of the insider trading scheme depicted in Trading Places, which involved futures contracts for frozen concentrated orange juice.















