Code Monger, cyclist, sim racer and driving enthusiast.
7890 stories
·
5 followers

ACAB

2 Shares

No alt provided

#ACAB
Read the whole story
LeMadChef
24 minutes ago
reply
Denver, CO
jhamill
18 hours ago
reply
California
Share this story
Delete

The Tech Baron Seeking to “Ethnically Cleanse” San Francisco | The New Republic

2 Comments

To fully grasp the current situation in San Francisco, where venture capitalists are trying to take control of City Hall, you must listen to Balaji Srinivasan. Before you do, steel yourself for what’s to come: A normal person could easily mistake his rambling train wrecks of thought for a crackpot’s ravings, but influential Silicon Valley billionaires regard him as a genius.

“Balaji has the highest rate of output per minute of good new ideas of anybody I’ve ever met,” wrote Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the V.C. firm Andreessen-Horowitz, in a blurb for Balaji’s 2022 book, The Network State: How to Start a New Country. The book outlines a plan for tech plutocrats to exit democracy and establish new sovereign territories. I mentioned Balaji’s ideas in two previous stories about Network State–related efforts in California—a proposed tech colony called California Forever and the tech-funded campaign to capture San Francisco’s government.

Balaji, a 43-year-old Long Island native who goes by his first name, has a solid Valley pedigree: He earned multiple degrees from Stanford University, founded multiple startups, became a partner at Andreessen-Horowitz and then served as chief technology officer at Coinbase. He is also the leader of a cultish and increasingly strident neo-reactionary tech political movement that sees American democracy as an enemy. In 2013, a New York Times story headlined “Silicon Valley Roused by Secession Call” described a speech in which he “told a group of young entrepreneurs that the United States had become ‘the Microsoft of nations’: outdated and obsolescent.”

“The speech won roars from the audience at Y Combinator, a leading start-up incubator,” reported the Times. Balaji paints a bleak picture of a dystopian future in a U.S. in chaos and decline, but his prophecies sometimes fall short. Last year, he lost $1 million in a public bet after wrongly predicting a massive surge in the price of Bitcoin.

Still, his appetite for autocracy is bottomless. Last October, Balaji hosted the first-ever Network State Conference. Garry Tanthe current Y Combinator CEO who’s attempting to spearhead a political takeover of San Franciscoparticipated in an interview with Balaji and cast the effort as part of the Network State movement. Tan, who made headlines in January after tweeting “die slow motherfuckers” at local progressive politicians, frames his campaign as an experiment in “moderate” politics. But in a podcast interview one month before the conference, Balaji laid out a more disturbing and extreme vision.

“What I’m really calling for is something like tech Zionism,” he said, after comparing his movement to those started by the biblical Abraham, Jesus Christ, Joseph Smith (founder of Mormonism), Theodor Herzl (“spiritual father” of the state of Israel), and Lee Kuan Yew (former authoritarian ruler of Singapore). Balaji then revealed his shocking ideas for a tech-governed city where citizens loyal to tech companies would form a new political tribe clad in gray t-shirts. “And if you see another Gray on the street … you do the nod,” he said, during a four-hour talk on the Moment of Zen podcast. “You’re a fellow Gray.”

The Grays’ shirts would feature “Bitcoin or Elon or other kinds of logos … Y Combinator is a good one for the city of San Francisco in particular.” Grays would also receive special ID cards providing access to exclusive, Gray-controlled sectors of the city. In addition, the Grays would make an alliance with the police department, funding weekly “policeman’s banquets” to win them over.

“Grays should embrace the police, okay? All-in on the police,” said Srinivasan. “What does that mean? That’s, as I said, banquets. That means every policeman’s son, daughter, wife, cousin, you know, sibling, whatever, should get a job at a tech company in security.”

In exchange for extra food and jobs, cops would pledge loyalty to the Grays. Srinivasan recommends asking officers a series of questions to ascertain their political leanings. For example: “Did you want to take the sign off of Elon’s building?”

This refers to the August 2023 incident in which Elon Musk illegally installed a large flashing X logo atop Twitter headquarters, in violation of building safety codes. City inspectors forced him to remove it. This was the second time Musk had run afoul of the city in his desire to refurbish his headquarters: In July, police briefly halted his attempt to pry the “Twitter” signage from the building’s exterior. But in Balaji’s dystopia, he implies that officers loyal to the Grays would let Musk do as he pleases (democratically inclined officers, he suggests, can be paid to retire).

Simply put, there is a ton of fascist-chic cosplay involved. Once an officer joins the Grays, they get a special uniform designed by their tech overlords. The Grays will also donate heavily to police charities and “merge the Gray and police social networks.” Then, in a show of force, they’ll march through the city together.

“A huge win would be a Gray Pride parade with 50,000 Grays,” said Srinivasan. “That would start to say: ‘Whose streets? Our streets!’ You have the A.I. Flying Spaghetti Monster. You have the Bitcoin parade. You have the drones flying overhead in formation.... You have bubbling genetic experiments on beakers.… You have the police at the Gray Pride parade. They’re flying the Anduril drones …”

Everyone would be welcome at the Gray Pride marcheveryone, that is, except the Blues. Srinivasan defines the Blue political tribe as the liberal voters he implies are responsible for the city’s problems. Blues will be banned from the Gray-controlled zones, said Balaji, unlike Republicans (“Reds”).

“Reds should be welcomed there, and people should wear their tribal colors,” said Srinivasan, who compared his color-coded apartheid system to the Bloods vs. Crips gang rivalry. “No Blues should be welcomed there.”

While the Blues would be excluded, they would not be forgotten. Srinivasan imagines public screenings of anti-Blue propaganda films: “In addition to celebrating Gray and celebrating Red, you should have movies shown about Blue abuses.… There should be lots of stories about what Blues are doing that is bad.”

Balaji goes on—and on. The Grays will rename city streets after tech figures and erect public monuments to memorialize the alleged horrors of progressive Democratic governance. Corporate logos and signs will fill the skyline to signify Gray dominance of the city. “Ethnically cleanse,” he said at one point, summing up his idea for a city purged of Blues (this, he says, will prevent Blues from ethnically cleansing the Grays first). The idea, he said, is to do to San Francisco what Musk did to Twitter.

“Elon, in sort of classic Gray fashion ... captures Twitter and then, at one stroke, wipes out millions of Blues’ status by wiping out the Blue Checks,” he said. “Another stroke … [he] renames Twitter as X, showing that he has true control, and it’s his vehicle, and that the old regime isn’t going to be restored.”

Those who try to downplay Balaji’s importance in Silicon Valley often portray him as a “clown.” But Donald Trump taught us that clowns can be dangerous, especially those with proximity to influence and power. In the nearly 11 years since his secession speech at Y Combinator, Balaji’s politics have become even more stridently authoritarian and extremist, yet he remains a celebrated figure in key circles. 

He has one million followers on X-Twitter, where Musk regularly boosts him. Tim Ferriss and Lex Fridman, two influential podcasters, have interviewed him. “Balaji is a friend of mine and is neither a dumbshit nor a clown,” tweeted economics blogger Noah Smith last June, defending Balaji from critics. Alex Lieberman, co-founder of the Morning Brew newsletter, recently listed Balaji at the top of what appears to be his ranked wish list of guests for an upcoming How to Start a Startup podcast (Musk and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg ranked sixth and fourteenth, respectively). Last week, he headlined Token2049, a sold-out conference in Dubai that bills itself as the “premier crypto event.”

Even more disturbing, however, is Balaji’s tight connection with Tan, the Y Combinator CEO who has publicly aligned himself with the Network State for years. “I legit believe [Y Combinator] is a prototype model for what @balajis talks about when he says the Network State,” wrote Tan in August 2022, shortly before he was named CEO. Over the past two years, as Musk has transformed Twitter into a right-wing information weapon, Tan has used the platform, along with his bully pulpit at Y Combinator, to wage all-out war for political control of San Francisco. This fits with Balaji’s recommendation that, as an alternative to forming new cities, tech zillionaires can use elections to seize existing governments.

Increasingly, Tan has also pursued another key Network State goal: attacking journalists. Balaji portrays the press, especially The New York Times, as the chief enemy of the Network State ideology.  He accuses the venerable paper of upholding something called “Woke Capital.”

“Woke Capital is the ideology of America’s ruling class as explicated by America’s ruling newspaper, The New York Times,” writes Balaji in his book. “It’s capitalism that enables decentralized censorship, cancel culture, and American empire.” Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger, whom Balaji characterizes as a “rich white male nepotist,” especially irks him. “What if Sulzberger is more like Keyser Söze?” writes Balaji, comparing Sulzberger to the mysterious criminal mastermind in 1995’s The Usual Suspects. “What if his employees are highly self-interested professional prevaricators? What if they’ve always been like that?”

“So long as you aren’t running a corporation based on hereditary nepotism where the current guy running the show inherits the company from his father’s father’s father’s father, you’re more diverse and democratic than the owners of The New York Times Company. You don’t need to take lectures from them, from anyone in their employ, or really from anyone in their social circle—which includes all establishment journalists.”

The solution, he says, is to create rival media outlets“parallel” forms of journalism controlled by tech plutocrats. Both he and Tan point to Musk’s transformation of Twitter as a perfect example of parallel media: a propaganda machine that smears real journalism as “fake” while aggressively promoting disinformation.

Over the past year, Tan has ramped up his attacks on reporters at The San Francisco Chronicle, The San Francisco Standard, and Mission Local. “If you want to understand why we got here, you have to understand three things,” Tan wrote in an anti-media Twitter screed last year. “1/The local political machine and the local media (Chronicle, Mission Local) are complicit in keeping it this way, supporting the worst, most corrupt candidates and repeating their propaganda.”

“Nobody likes this article,” he tweeted at the Standard, owned by billionaire Michael Moritz, after the site published a feature about a progressive leader last year. “Fix your headline,” he commanded in a tweet after it published a story about a Cruise robotaxi hitting a pedestrian in October.

“Mission Local besmirches the city with unbalanced coverage that only emboldens Preston, Peskin, Chan,” he wrote in November, name-checking three of the elected officials upon whom he would later wish a “slow death.”

Amid his drunken tweet scandal, Tan paused such attacks. He hired a public relations consultant, apologized, and ceased sending out caustic tweetstemporarily. Then, on March 29, the Times published a favorable profile of him. Written by former Chronicle columnist Heather Knight, it characterized him as a “middle-of-the-road” Democrat agitating for “common sense” ideas. Tan came across as contrite and humble, a civic-minded centimillionaire who let his passion for political change get the best of him. “Mr. Tan has tried to learn from his online messor says he has,” wrote Knight. “In person, he speaks kindly and calmly and smiles often, frequently bowing to people while making a prayer gesture with his hands.” 

Progressives groaned at what they saw as a conspicuous whitewashing of Tan’s behavior. Tan proudly shared the piece on social media. He has nevertheless returned to his old antics. “SF legacy media is dishonest and lies to you,” he wrote to his 428,000 followers on April 1.

What’s stunning, however, is the degree to which coverage of Tan has been quite evenhanded and fair, if not positive. The press has unquestioningly accepted the framing that he represents moderate or “common sense” politics. Not one local story has mentioned his long affiliation with Balaji or the Network State cult that is currently trying to create tech-controlled cities around the globe, and which maintains a fascination with an alt-right, neofascist movement known as the “Dark Enlightenment.” (In 2021, Cade Metz of the Times wrote that Balaji had suggested targeting journalists who mention these connections. “If things get hot, it may be interesting to sic the Dark Enlightenment audience on a single vulnerable hostile reporter to dox them and turn them inside out with hostile reporting sent to *their* advertisers/friends/contacts,” wrote Balaji in an email viewed by the Times.) In a twisted way, these omissions almost lend credence to claims that mainstream press outlets don’t tell us what’s really going on.

In the aftermath of Tan’s death threat tweets, both the Chronicle and the Standard hesitated for at least a day before publishing full stories. For a moment, it seemed unclear whether they would cover it at all. Yet despite the local media’s generally fair approach and the puffy Times glow-up, Tan continues to rage against the press. Nothing less than absolute control and fealty seems acceptable to the Network State types.

“Do not hire PR,” tweeted Balaji on April 4, days after Tan’s P.R.-wrangled Times profile. “They want to ‘train’ you to talk to journos. But journos hate you! So this is an obsolete model. Instead, just hire influencers. Build your own channel. And go direct.”

Tan boosted the message to his feed.

Read the whole story
LeMadChef
22 hours ago
reply
Dismantle Silicon Valley. There's simply too much stupid there with too much money.
Denver, CO
acdha
1 day ago
reply
“Those who try to downplay Balaji’s importance in Silicon Valley often portray him as a “clown.” But Donald Trump taught us that clowns can be dangerous, especially those with proximity to influence and power. In the nearly 11 years since his secession speech at Y Combinator, Balaji’s politics have become even more stridently authoritarian and extremist, yet he remains a celebrated figure in key circles.”
Washington, DC
Share this story
Delete

GM Had GPS Navigation Working Back in 1992, But Abandoned It A Year Later

1 Share

GPS navigation systems really hit the mainstream in the early 2000s. Another decade later, and they were included on just about every vehicle in the market. What you might not know is that GM had in-vehicle GPS navigation up and running as early as 1991.

Of course, GM wasn’t the only company fiddling about with navigation at this time. The idea of turn-by-turn route guidance had long existed in the industry, and it was only in the early 1990s that technology got to the point where it was even plausible. When that happened, GM was right there, ready to invest in a cutting-edge project to make it happen.

And yet, despite this early start, it would be quite some time before navigation became commonplace across the company’s fleet. Let’s explore why.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 27 Screenshot (1)
When TravTek debuted, auto journalists looked like this.

Future Forward

Known as TravTek, GM’s system basically previewed the navigation systems we use today. Unlike some early navigation systems, this wasn’t some weird electromechanical system, nor did it rely on expensive localized infrastructure.  Relying on GPS for guidance, it was a fully-featured system, even integrating real-time traffic feedback and a points-of-interest database.

The system was built by a grand partnership. GM teamed up with AAA and the Flordia Department of Transportation, initially equipping the system for a trial in the city of Orlando. This was an ideal test case for the system, as it would have great utility in helping visitors navigate the popular tourist destination.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 2 4 Screenshot
A fleet of cars were fitted with TravTek and handed over to Avis for rental use by the public.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 23 Screenshot (1)

The system was based on the existing Visual Information Center (VIC) display as used in the Oldsmobile Toronado and Trofeo.To that end, GM built 100 test vehicles equipped with TravTek, and it gave 75 of them to Avis to use as rental cars. The other 25 were given to local test drivers. If you were visiting Orlando in 1992, for example, you could rent yourself a duly equipped Toronado for as low as $29 a day, or just $139 a week.

GM chose the Oldsmobile Toronado as the testbed for the TravTek system. It made perfect sense, as the TravTek system was developed from GM’s earlier Visual Information Center (VIC) display used in the Toronado. Pressing the “NAVIG” button on a VIC only gave you a compass. On the TravTek cars, it gave you access to a fully-fledged touchscreen GPS navigation system.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 19 Screenshot (1)

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 16 Screenshot (1)

The TravTek VIC unit was mounted in the center of the dash just like modern infotainment units. It used a color cathode ray tube, providing a crisp and bright image that wasn’t possible with contemporary LCD technology. It displayed simple line maps to provide turn-by-turn guidance to the driver’s chosen destination. Voice instructions were also provided courtesy of a crude speech synth.  Based on the sound output, it sounds curiously like the Texas Instruments TMS5100, though a number of speech synths in that era had a similarly robotic sound due to technical limitations.

The system could navigate to points of interest selected from its own rich database. Alternatively,you could choose a street or intersection from the list as your desired destination instead. Thus, it was useful both for tourists visiting major attractions, as well as locals just wanting to get around the city.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 1 20 Screenshot
TravTek was only loaded with maps and information for Orlando and the surrounding metropolitan area.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 27 Screenshotbbbb)

Much like modern systems, TravTek could also customize a route to your tastes. Namely, it would let you choose to avoid toll roads or interestates if you so desired. Otherwise, it would just find you the fastest route to your destination.

GPS satellites were only just over a decade old, but they provided the necessary navigational signals for the TravTek system to determine the vehicle’s position. A large and unsightly antenna sat on top of the rear of the car to pick up the satellite signals reliably. Also helping out in this regard was a built-in digital compass, along with wheel sensors that measured the vehicle’s speed to aid in location tracking. This was particularly helpful, as at the time, civilian GPS signals were limited to a far lower level of accuracy than today. Years later, this would eventually change when President Clinton decreed the end of Selective Availablity for GPS, which drastically improved the accuracy of civilian GPS systems.

Antennamen

Beyond 2000 1993 Full Episode Part 2 Of 3 7 57 Screenshot (1)
Not exactly pretty, but this bulky GPS antenna did the job.

The system was actually more fully featured than many GPS units that hit the market a decade or more later. Through the assistance of the Fedaral Highway Administration and the Florida Department of Transport, the city of Orlando was granted a new Traffic Management Center. Through a network of distributed cameras and sensors, the TMC tracked traffic conditions across the city. Traffic data from the TMC was sent to TravTek units over an FM radio link, advising drivers of congestion on their routes.

Based on TMC data, the display would also show red stars denoting accidents, red circles for closed roads, and yellow circles to denote heavy traffic. TravTek was capable of rerouting in cases of severe congestion or other hazards with the touch of a button. The connection was two-way, with TravTek able to notify the TMC of its own position.

Beyond 2000 1993 Full Episode Part 2 Of 3 11 38 Screenshot
The guidance display was most useful for showing the driver where to go. Voice directions also proved helpful, just as in modern GPS systems.

For AAA’s part, it established the TravTek Information and Services Center to support users of the system over the phone. This is demonstrated in a TV segment from Beyond 2000, an Australian technology show. The presenter makes a wrong turn (obviously on purpose), and then hits the system’s Help button. This triggered the rental car’s phone to dial in to AAA’s help center. At the center, an assistant advises the presenter on what to do. Automatic rerouting wasn’t a thing on TravTek, but it could determine if you got off route. In that case, it would ask if you wanted it to generate a new route to your destination by pressing a button.

AAA also provided a rich source of local information for the TravTek system. Baked into the database was a list of hotels, tourist attractions, and other points of interest that could readily be called up on the TravTek display. Users could see a hotel’s AAA rating and even learn if it had a swimming pool if they so desired, all on the screen. At the touch of a button, they could then place a call to the hotel if they wished to make a booking. Or, they could simply use the navigation instructions to get there and make their inquiry at the front desk.

Beyond 2000 1993 Full Episode Part 2 Of 3 7 20 Screenshot
The system featured a large bank of local attractions and even shows and concerts in its onboard database.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 0 54 Screenshot
If so desired, you could call a hotel just by hitting a button on the touchscreen and picking up the carphone.

Going beyond that, AAA even provided TravTek with a list of “Things to See and Do.” This advised the user on upcoming concerts, plays, and performances, even including details as granular as show times and ticket prices.

Building the system specifically for use in Orlando helped control the scope of the trial. This meant that infrastructure to support TravTek only had to be deployed in one city, and this limited staffing requirements in turn. Storing map data and points of interest was also easier when the system only had to cover one city. Storage and RAM were both incredibly expensive in this era, after all, to say nothing of the effort required to produce the digital maps and data in the first place.

Screenshot 2024 04 16 162814
The system was in radio contact with the Traffic Management Center which could provide live updates on road conditions.

The Beyond 2000 segment gets a little creepy. “Hello Joe, it’s Tracy,” she says, as she drives with her eyes closed.

Beyond 2000 1993 Full Episode Part 2 Of 3 11 59 Screenshot
“Hi Tracy! I’ve been tracking you since you left the airport. I saw that wrong turn you made…” says Joe. This was staged for the show, but it comes across both hilarious and unsettling.

Well Received

The retro system might look old and complicated, but it was remarkably well received during the trial. Data was collected from over 4,000 volunteer drivers who used the system over the 12-month trial period, most of which provided positive feedback on the technology.

A questionnaire was given to determine driver perceptions of the system. A value of 6 was assigned to “Strongly Agree,” with 1 assigned to “Strongly Disagree.” Drivers resoundingly stated that the TravTek Guidance Display helped them find their way (5.7), and many found the voice instructions similarly helpful (5.4).

Overall, 96% of drivers surveyed believed TravTek would be useful for “out-of-town business driving,” while 99% believed it would be useful on vacation. Interestingly, though, just 39% believed it would be useful for driving “at home.”

Screenshot 2024 04 16 162853

Screenshot 2024 04 16 162902
Much work was done to make the system’s directions clear and easy to understand.

Research into the device also found that TravTek slashed trip planning time for drivers. Setting up the system at the start of the trip took just 30 seconds, relative to 5-8 minutes for drivers that used traditional paper maps. Travel times were shorter too, which was perhaps a function of drivers making less mistakes.

In direct testing, researchers also found that every driver using the system found their destination. In contrast, 7 percent of drivers in the control group failed to reach their intended destination. It also appeared that the system helped reduce the workload on drivers navigating to unfamiliar destinations, though this was based on some subjective assessment by researchers.

Ultimately, 47.9% of drivers stated they liked TravTrek a whole bunch. Amusingly, though, one feature stood out as unpopular. 31.2% of drivers stated the synthetic voice was their least favorite feature. Much of this came down to the poor intelligibility of the voice. Few actually wanted it eliminated entirely.

Beyond 2000 1993 Full Episode Part 2 Of 3 12 9 Screenshot

Future, Faltered

The system worked, and the drivers liked it. So, TravTek ended up as a market success, right? Well, not quite.

One problem was cost. In 1992, a handheld GPS receiver cost over $1,000. That was with a tiny black-and-white LCD display, no maps, no guidance, or any advanced features whatsoever. In contrast, the TravTek system would have been far more expensive to implement. It had a large color display, the ability to display directions, read out voice commands, and store a great deal of map data. All that data also cost money to collect and maintain. Plus, there was the added cost of support staff and infrastructure like the Traffic Management Center and AAA’s hotline for user assistance.

Early In Car Navigation System Throwback Thursday 1 25 Screenshot
The route map was rudimentary, and not up to the standard of more modern devices. Users found it less helpful than the specific guidance display that showed instructions on when and where to turn.

Cut back to the research, and it was clear that the business case wasn’t quite there yet. Researchers found that customers were willing to pay around $1000 to $1200 for a TravTek system, either as an aftermarket accessory or as an option on a new car.

At those prices, it would be difficult to cover the cost of the hardware required in the car. That’s saying nothing of the staffing and infrastructure costs to keep the whole system running, either.

Scale would also have been a challenge. Rolling out the system across the country would require ramping up staff on the back end to create and maintain maps and point-of-interest data for every city in the nation. There would also be the question of whether it would be cost-effective to have a TravTek unit store data for the whole country. With storage in the 1990s being incredibly expensive, it may have limited an individual car to storing maps for its local area only. This would have limited the system’s effectiveness for longer-range roadtrips —ironically where it would be most useful.

Ultimately, the system was just too expensive to work as a mass-market offering at the time. TravTek wouldn’t go beyond its initial 100-car trial. The Oldsmobile Toronado and its pioneering VIC system wouldn’t last much longer either, with the car cancelled after the 1992 model year.

General Motors Guidestar Navigation Map Archive
GM would later develop GuideStar, equipping it on the Oldsmobile Eighty-Eight in 1995.

GM didn’t give up on its ambitions for a navigation system. It would return in 1995 with the GuideStar system, while multiple European and Japanese automakers were all rushing to market with their own systems. Even years later, the GuideStar system could still only cover 17 states. It was a $2,000 option on the Oldsmobile Eighty-Eight for that model year.

Ultimately, it would take another decade or so for GPS navigation to really find its feet. In the early 2000s, lower cost electronics helped GPS units make real market penetration, as did the improvement in GPS accuracy enabled by the Clinton administration. And yet, GM really did have it all figured out all the way back in 1992. As long as you were happy just driving around Orlando, that is.

Image credits: GM, MotoringTV via YouTube screenshot,  R D via YouTube screenshot, US DOT, Federal Highway Administration

The post GM Had GPS Navigation Working Back in 1992, But Abandoned It A Year Later appeared first on The Autopian.

Read the whole story
LeMadChef
2 days ago
reply
Denver, CO
Share this story
Delete

Reducing CO₂ emissions by 20% with only a 2% economic loss

2 Shares

A "rapid and far-reaching change" is necessary to prevent catastrophic climate change, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "However, the transformation of the economy towards climate neutrality always involves a certain amount of economic stress—some industries and jobs disappear while others are created," explains Johannes Stangl from the Complexity Science Hub (CSH). When it comes to climate policy measures, how can economic damage be minimized?

A CSH team has developed a new method to help solve this problem. "To understand how climate policy measures will affect a country's economy, it's not sufficient to have data on carbon dioxide emissions. We must also understand the role that companies play in the economy," says Stangl, one of the co-authors of the study published in Nature Sustainability.

CO2 emissions reduced by 20%

The researchers used a data set from Hungary that includes almost 250,000 companies and over one million supplier relationships, virtually representing the entire Hungarian economy. They examined what a country's entire economy would look like if certain companies were forced to cease production in various scenarios—all aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20%.

"In the first scenario, we looked at what would happen if only CO2 emissions were taken into account," explains Stefan Thurner from the CSH. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, the country's seven largest emitters would have to cease operations.

"In the meantime, however, around 29% of jobs and 32% of the country's economic output would be lost. The idea is completely unrealistic; no politician would ever attempt such a thing," says Thurner.

Furthermore, when greenhouse gas emissions and the size of the companies are considered, serious economic consequences result.

A two-factor approach

"Two factors are crucial—the CO2 emissions of a company, as well as what systemic risks are associated with it, i.e. what role the company plays in the supply network," explains Stangl. CSH researchers developed the Economic Systemic Risk Index (ESRI) in an earlier study. It estimates the economic loss that would result if a company ceased production.

Taking these two factors into account—a company's greenhouse gas emissions and its risk index for the country's economy—the researchers calculated a new ranking of companies with large emissions relative to their economic impact.

According to the new ranking, a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions would require the top 23 companies on the list to cease operations. This, however, would only result in a loss of 2% of jobs and 2% of economic output.

At the company level

"In reality, companies would naturally try to find new suppliers and customers. We want to take this aspect into account in a further developed version of our model in order to obtain an even more comprehensive picture of the green transformation. However, our study clearly shows that we need to take the supply network at the company level into account if we want to evaluate what a particular climate policy will achieve," say the authors of the study. This is the only way to assess which companies will be affected by a particular measure and how this will affect their trading partners, according to them.

The availability of company-level data has been largely lacking in Austria. The risk assessment is normally done at the sector level, for example, how severely a measure affects the entire automotive or tourism industry.

"This puts us at a disadvantage compared to other countries such as Hungary, Spain or Belgium, where detailed data is available at company level. In these countries, VAT is not recorded cumulatively, but in a standardized way for all business-to-business transactions, which means that extensive information is available on the country's supply network," explains Thurner.

More information: Firm-level supply chains to minimize decarbonization unemployment and economic losses, Nature Sustainability (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-024-01321-x

Journal information: Nature Sustainability

Provided by Complexity Science Hub

Citation: Reducing CO₂ emissions by 20% with only a 2% economic loss (2024, April 15) retrieved 15 April 2024 from <a href="https://phys.org/news/2024-04-emissions-economic-loss.html" rel="nofollow">https://phys.org/news/2024-04-emissions-economic-loss.html</a>
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
Read the whole story
LeMadChef
4 days ago
reply
Denver, CO
acdha
14 days ago
reply
Washington, DC
Share this story
Delete

Quoting Erika Hall

3 Shares

A bad survey won’t tell you it’s bad. It’s actually really hard to find out that a bad survey is bad — or to tell whether you have written a good or bad set of questions. Bad code will have bugs. A bad interface design will fail a usability test. It’s possible to tell whether you are having a bad user interview right away. Feedback from a bad survey can only come in the form of a second source of information contradicting your analysis of the survey results.

Most seductively, surveys yield responses that are easy to count and counting things feels so certain and objective and truthful.

Even if you are counting lies.

Erika Hall

Read the whole story
LeMadChef
5 days ago
reply
Denver, CO
acdha
5 days ago
reply
Washington, DC
Share this story
Delete

‘TikTok ban’ gets signed into law — here’s what happens next

1 Comment and 2 Shares
Illustration featuring purple and blue graphic lines and a TikTok logo
Illustration: Ariel Davis for Polygon

The US government is giving TikTok owner ByteDance 9 months to sell the app

Continue reading…

Read the whole story
LeMadChef
5 days ago
reply
Thank goodness Congress is finally doing the right thing to protect Americans from having their data exfiltrated by...

Preventing a single app from being listed in the Apple/Google app stores? Wait, what about all the other apps that collect and sell our data (often to US government law enforcement agencies)?

Right, right, those are AMERICAN companies. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Denver, CO
Share this story
Delete
Next Page of Stories